Brinksmanship and the Debates

What is happening? The debate scheduled for tonight--the debate I made my students promise they would watch--is now in limbo. Its status has become a political football, and it's difficult to see who's in possession at the moment. Being an historian, I am curious about the narrative and its meaning, so let's pause to see if we can reconstruct the events:

At some point on Sep. 24, a conference call between the two campaigns ended with the suggestion of a joint statement that Congress should put aside divisions and figure out a plan for the current financial crisis.

John McCain made a prepared, public announcement later that day saying he was suspending his campaign and asking that the presidential debate be postponed.

Obama responded that the debates did not need to be delayed. He suggested that the time was ripe for a debate and that presidents need to multitask anyway.

McCain has further said he will not participate in the debate unless a consensus has been reached in Congress about the bailout plan.

This narrative changes by the minute, so this is already out of date. But the narrative is a curious look at politics on the campaign trail. It is, either sadly or gleefully, a parody of itself.

Nothing is funny about the financial crisis, except that the response seems to be to give the former CEO of Goldman-Sachs $700 billion in seed money without any legislative or judicial oversight or review. This is a page out of the FDR playbook, which tells us something about the constitutional direction of the new conservative movement.

But the response of the candidates is. First, John McCain reads from a teleprompter a statement saying that this has surprised us all and that we have to drop everything to guarantee a legislative solution. Let's drop politics, he says, and suspends his campaign.

Except that there is nothing more political than telling the nation that you are not political and (arguably, I know) using the crisis as a platform for a campaign slogan ("Country First"). And I doubt anyone really thinks otherwise. Certainly Obama didn't, who took the opportunity to remind everyone that the president needs to be vigorous and should be able to lift heavy objects and leap buildings and the like. The obvious implication is that McCain lacks such vigor. A clever, if somewhat mean, counterstroke.

But McCain then upped the ante by saying he WOULDN'T participate in the debate unless a consensus was reached. This is pure brinksmanship. He is virtually daring Obama to fly to the debate alone, and then have to turn his plane around for Washington.

But will it work? If McCain backs down and goes to the debates, he will have backed down (unless he can sell a compromise in the next eight hours, which is . . .). If he doesn't go, it's a huge gamble. Will it pay off?

Meanwhile, we're getting a taste of what the next president will have to deal with.